Showing posts with label Ole Miss. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ole Miss. Show all posts

Replay Booth: Offense vs. Ole Miss  

Before the season began I knew I wanted to go back and analyze the film from each game to get a deeper understanding of what went on and how everyone played. Until I tried to do it after the Baylor game, I had no idea what I was getting myself into. It's a several hour process just to break down the game for one side of the ball, and since I hadn't done it before I had to figure out the best way to format the information for the website through a fair bit of trial and error.

Obviously things didn't quite work with Baylor. I had tried to gather what was probably too much information and couldn't organize it coherently, much less make it readable in an online format. Now that I've got some idea of what I'm doing, I may try to go back and get Baylor done, but this post focuses on the offense against Ole Miss. Hopefully Defense will come later today or tomorrow.

Couple things I need to state up front. First, I had a little help on this, "borrowing" (with permission, of course) some of the methods and metrics Brian Cook uses on his Michigan blog, MGOBlog. Until I have time to fully explain the way things work, I may just link to his explanations so that you can get an idea of what different things are.

First you'll see a play-by-play breakdown of every offensive play in the game. The factual data about the play will be listed first, followed by some more subjective information and analysis. Within this analysis you'll find various acronyms and numbers that are part of the grading system (which I'm about to explain). The individual player grading charts will follow after the big game chart.

I really like Brian's methods for evaluating/grading quarterbacks and receivers. For quarterbacks we'll place every throw into one of the following categories:

  • DO: Dead on (must be a really perfect pass, usually as part of a big play)
  • CA: Catchable - a good accurate throw, most good short throws fall in this category
  • IN: Inaccurate - A throw that was off target - usually uncatchable unless there was a great catch
  • BR: Bad Read - pretty self explanatory - QB makes a dumb throw
  • TA: Throwaway - Coverage and/or pressure forces QB to just throw the ball away
  • PR: Pressure - Sacks, forced scrambles
Those are the basics, although a more complete definition can be found here.

Receivers have a numbering system that goes as follows:
  • 0 - Ball was completely uncatchable, but he was the "intended" receiver
  • 1 - Very difficult catch
  • 2 - Difficult catch
  • 3 - Routine catch
In the summary chart you'll see that these will be expressed as a fraction of successes out of opportunities - i.e. if a guy has three difficult catch opportunities and makes two of them, he'd be 2/3 under "2."

For offensive linemen and other blockers I made up my own simple metric. If a guy makes a particularly good block on a play he gets a "+1" and if he clearly messes up a block he gets a "-1." It's not perfect because it's unable to account for plays where everyone does their job but no one does anything spectacular, but we can work on that in the future. This will work for now.

I don't have any good ideas for how to grade running backs, so they're left out in the cold for now. Let me know if you have any ideas on that.

That should be enough of an introduction, so let's take a look at what happened. Remember, I'm not a professional or a coach, and I haven't played competitive football since high school. This is just my subjective analysis of the game. Feel free to agree or disagree with me and let me know about it if you so choose. Here we go...



LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
W20110Shotgun 4-wideNickelRunInside drawAdams0
An inside draw gets blown up on the backside by the defensive end. Griffin appeared to be pulling, but he never got far enough to make any kind of hole (-1). I'm not sure he really could have done anything, but there seemed to be some indicision from Adams which didn't help (-1).
W20210Ace tight4-3 basePassPA bootBoldin16
Play action pass, Skinner bootlegs out to the right and finds D.J. Boldin on a 12 yard out, totally wide open (CA, 3). Protection was good - pressure came from a linebacker but no one could have blocked him. Skinner did well to make a good pass.
W36110Ace tight4-3 baseRunBad snapSkinner-1
Skinner never got the snap - it fell right to the turf. I'm going to have to give the mistake to Bailey (-1).
W35211Shotgun 5-wideDimePassSackSkinner-5
I know that in college football sacks technically count as run plays, but I think that's stupid so I'm calling it a pass (PR). This was not a good play for the line - pressure came from both sides and Birdson, McMllin, and Griffin all looked bad (-1 for each).
W30316Shotgun 2-backsNickelPassFlareBelton15
Good protection all around. Good check down by Skinner (CA), good catch and run by Belton(3). Would have liked to see coach go for it on 4th and half a yard, but obviously that ended up working out just fine.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 12:30 1st. Fumbles and poor protection were costly
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
O14110Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassThrow awaySkinner0
Fine protection, Skinner feels space to the right and scrambles that way but coverage is good. Throws it away out of bounds in Adams direction (TA,0)
O14210Ace tightNickelPassPAHarris14
Good protection, nice route from Harris coming from a TE position and a perfect throw (CA, 2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown (Swank), 7-0, 11:50 1st. Good job capitalizing on opportunity after punt recovery.
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
W29110Shotgun 2-backsNickelRunOptionAdams21
Skinner and Adams run the option to the right and that side of the line blocks down well (+1). Skinner makes the right read and Boldin makes a nice downfield block to spring Adams for a few extra yards. Great play all around.
W50110Shotgun 3-wideNickelPassCurlHarris0
Decent pressure from Ole Miss; Birdsong got manhandled (-1). Skinner makes a fine throw hitting Harris in the numbers but he just drops it (CA, 3).
W50210Shotgun 3-wide4-3 blitzPenaltyFalse startBirdsong-5
Can't do that. First penatly of the season.
W45215Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassDeep flyM. Williams0
Good pass protection once again. Skinner buys time scrambling right and throws on the move deep down the sideline to M. Williams. It was a pretty good pass considering how it was thrown but it was slightly underthrown. It would have been a rediculous catch by Williams (IN, 1).
W45315Shotgun 4-wideNickelPassFlareBoldin7
Skinner sidesteps the corner blitz and finds Boldin, but there was no way to get the needed 15 yards (CA, 3).
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-0, 7:51 1Q.
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
W23110I4-3 baseRunBlastPendergrass3
First play out of the I is an inside run to the right. Nenon makes a nice cut block (+1) and Bailey seals the backside (+1).
W2627Shotgun 3-wideNickelRunDrawPendergrass3
The whole line makes a pretty good push on this inside draw and Pendergrass picks up 3 more. Didn't exactly make any huge holes, but the line won the initial battle on this running play.
W2934Shotgun 3-wideNickelPassScrambleSkinner-2
Skinner ends up scrambling out of bounds to the left. A ""coverage sack"" as Skinner had plenty of time and just didn't have anyone open (TA - didn't throw it, but it had the same effect). The line did a good job sealing everything off to the right.
W2746PuntReturnPuntRoughing the KickerSwank15
Roughing the kicker on Ole Miss saves Wake it's first three and out
W42110Shotgun 2-backs4-3 baseRunDrawBelton-3
Inside draw ot the left. No push and Birdsong completely ignores the linebacker that gets in the backfield to make the tackle (-1).
W39213Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassCurlBrinkman12
Skinner sees the blitz and gets the pass of immedietly. Brinkman was wide open for the slightly high but catchable pass (CA, 2).
O4931Ace tight4-3 baseRunCounterPendergrass-1
The blockers held their own but Pendergrass danced around the backfield instead of trying to get up the field (-1). 0-4 on 3rd down so far.
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-7 15:00 2Q. Can't capitalize on opportunity
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
W29110Ace tightNickelPassSackSkinner-9
That sack happened in a HURRY. Nothing at all Skinner could have done (PR). I don't know what Bailey and Looney thought they were doing, but the guy lined up right between the two of them got to Skinner completely untouched (-1 for both). Ugly.
W20219Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassQuick outWooster7
Good quick play to an open Wooster on the right (CA, 3).
W27312Shotgun 2-backsNickelPassDeep flyM. Williams0
Not only was Williams double covered, but Skinner overthrew him by a good 5 yards (BR, IN, 0)
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-7, 10:00 2Q. Three and outs hurt.
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
W32110I4-3 baseRunBlastAdams3
Inside run to the right is almost blown up in the backfield due to a missed block by McMillin (-1). Adams does well to avoid that tackler and gain positive yardage (+1).
W3527Shotgun 2-backsNickelRunShovelAdams5
Impressive underhand shovel to Adams. Nice little play, would like to see it again.
W 4032Ace tight4-3 basePassPA bootBelton6
Nice play action and good throw and catch from Skinner to Belton (CA, 3).
W47110Shotgun 5-wideNickelPenaltyOffsidesPowe5
We'll take it.
O4815Ace tight4-3 baseRunOff TackleAdams1
Almost a nice running play but Adams is barely tripped up.
O4724Shotgun 4-wideDimePassQuick screenAdams2
Right play called for the blitz, but Skinner's throw is low, keeping Adams from being able to get up field very quickly (IN, 2).
O4532I?4-3 ?PassQuick OutHarris2
TV didn't catch beginning of play, looked like an I formation, maybe Ace. Quick throw to Harris is just short of the first (CA, 3). Another failed conversion.
O434inAce tight4-3 baseRunSneakSkinner1
QB sneak to the right for the 1st. Good overall push.
O42110Shotgun 5-wideDimePassScreenBoldin7
Great blitz read to get the bubble screen to Boldin (CA, 3). Boldin did a good job getting yards after the catch.
O3523Shotgun 4-wideNickelPassPA screenWooster10
Great play action play to get the ball to Wooster on the sideline (CA, 3). M. Williams made a nice block to spring him for good yardage.
O25110Ace tight4-3 baseRunOff-tackleAdams7
A shoelace tackle prevents Adams from a HUGE gain. Rinfrette makes a nice cut block in the backfield to open things up (+1)
O1823Ace tight4-3 baseRunDiveAdams1
Blocking wasn't bad but it didn't open a hole. Adams gets what he can.
O1732Shotgun 2-backsDimePassSlantBoldin9
Great quick throw and catch on the slant to pick up a first down (CA, 3).
O919Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassScrambleSkinner2
Good seal by Hoag to make the scramble possible (+1). Good coverage by Ole Miss
O727Ace tight4-3 baseRunDiveAdams5
Adams hits hole hard right up the middle. Looked like McMillin with a pretty good block (+1)
O333Shotgun 3-wide4-3 basePassScreenAdams-1
Not a great play call - there really wasn't any way Adams could have gotten to the endzone. Tackles Birdsong and Griffin provided good protection (+1), but Skinner's throw was innacurate and didn't help anything (IN, 1)
Drive Notes: Field Goal, 10-14, Halftime. Best drive of the game so far, but when you get down that close you've got to but 7 on the board.
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
W24110Shotgun 3-wideNickelPassSlantBoldin14
Good quick throw, nice protection, good route and run after catch (CA, 3).
W38110Shotgun 3-wideNickelPassPA screenBoldin7
Play action screen pass to Boldin on the left. Exactly like you draw it up (CA, 3).
W4523Ace tight3-4 baseRunDiveAdams-3
Adams running inside the tackle to the left. Defensive end comes in untouched. Looked like Wooster should have picked up him up (-1).
W4236Shotgun 5-wideDimePassSackSkinner-7
Absolutely terrible blocking. Skinner had no time when both Birdsong and McMillin totally blew their blocks (-1 for each, PR)
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-14 10:00 3Q. Great start to the drive is totally killed by back to back poorly blocked plays.
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
O45110Shotgun 2-backsNickelPassQuick outM. Williams0
Skinner gets it off quickly with a pretty good pass to Williams right on the sideline. It looked like Williams probably could have caught it but just didn't pull it in fast enough (CA, 2).
O45210Shotgun 4-wide3-4 blitzRunDrawAdams2
Inside draw gets a couple. Not sure I like the play call on 2nd and 10. Pretty good block by Andrew Parker pulling from the TE position (+1)
O4338Shotgun 4-wide4-3 basePassFlyBoldin26
Blitz coming and picked up reasonably well, Skinner gets pass off quickly. Ball was thrown to the perfect place but Boldin still made an awesome catch (DO, 1).
O17110Ace tight4-3 baseRunDiveAdams6
One of the best inside runs of the day. A good hole provided by McMillin and Griffin (+1).
O1225I4-3 baseRunDiveAdams2
Ole Miss brought 8 and there just weren't enough blockers. Still, not much of a push from the line.
O1033Ace tight4-3 basePassPAWooster0
Play action with good protection, looked like it might be a TD pass to Wooster but the defender made a good play on the ball. I still think Wooster may have been able to catch it, though (CA, 1).
Drive Notes: Field Goal, 13-14 6:00 3Q. Another one of those drives where you'd like to get a TD instead of a field goal.
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
O41110Shotgun 5-wide4-3 blitzPassOutWooster4
Ole Miss brings pressure and the protection holds long enough to get the pass off. Really wasn't a great throw, good catch by Wooster (IN, 2).
O3626Shotgun 2-backs4-3 baseRunOptionSkinner5
Good read by Skinner to keep the ball. Birdsong makes a nice block (+1).
O3231Ace tight4-3 baseRunDivePendergrass1
TV cut off the beginning of the play, but there wasn't any push from the line. No penetration, but no push either. Pendergrass couldn't make it happen alone.
O3141I4-3 blitzRunDiveRinfrette1
Rinfrette hits the hole quick to get the first. I like the fake pitch, too.
O31110Ace tight4-3 baseRunCounterPendergrass5
Pendergrass with a nice run on the coutner play. Nenon was pulling but didn't really find anyone to block because no one was there. Nice big hole
O2625Shotgun 4-wide4-3 basePassScreenBoldin1
Great pocket protection but good coverage down field makes Skinner hit Boldin as the saftey (CA, 3). Boldin probably should have gone to the sideline instead of back towards the middle of the field. Probably could have picked up a couple more yards that way.
O2534Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassFlyM. Williams25
Great protection once again, and Skinner makes a perfect pass to Williams in the endzone. Exactly how you draw it up (DO, 3).
Drive Notes: Touchdown (Swank) 20-14. 1:35 3rd. Best drive of the day so far, even though it was with a short field. Blocking was better, running was better, and Skinner threw the ball well. Good to finally finish a drive.
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
W20110Shotgun 4-wide4-3 blitzPassPAHarris0
Nenon pulls and makes a nice block (+1). Skinner makes a slightly off target but very catchable pass to Harris off of the play action that would have gone for 15-ish yards, but Harris just doesn't pull it in (CA, 2)
W20210Shotgun 4-wideNickelPassPABoldin12
Nice little shotgun play action where Skinner hits Bodlin on a screen to the right (CA, 3). Boldin gets a bunch of yards down the sideline.
W32110Ace tight4-3 baseRunOff TacklePendergrass10
Everyone blocks down to the left leaving a great hole to the right. Parker makes the key block from the fullback position and Pendergrass runs well (+1). Boldin also helped spring things down field with a good block
W42110Shotgun 4-wide4-3 basePassScreenBrinkman7
Quick pass to the left sideline for a nice pickup. I like this play on first down (CA, 3).
W4923Shotgun 3-wide4-3 basePassQuick outBrinkman5
Another quick ball to Brinkman on the left sideline. This pass wasn't perfect, but it was catchable and Brinkman made a very nice catch (CA, 2)
O47110Shotgun 3-wideNickelRunDrawPendergrass2
Draw up the middle and there wasn't any real hole. Birdsong blocked the defender down into the hole clogging things up (-1).
O4528Ace tightNickelRunCounterPendergrass19 (+15)
Best running play of the season so far. Nenon makes a great seal block on the counter (+1) and Pendergrass makes an excellent cut to get another 10 yards. Perfectly executed, and the late hit gets some extra yards, too.
W13110Ace tight4-3 baseRunCounterPendergrass13
This looks like exactly the same play as the one before, and it worked just as well. Nenon makes another excellent block on the pull (+1) and Pendergrass showed a great burst. I loved seeing Skinner immedietly go to Nenon and give him credit for the play. He knows how important those linemen are.
Drive Notes: Touchdown (Swank), 27-21, 11:30 4Q. Best drive of the day - 80 yards of excellence. Nothing to complain about, and I agree with kicking the extra point.
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
W37110Ace tight4-3 baseRunBlastAdams0
No push at all from the left side of the line on the blast. Nothing terrible, but nothing good.
W37210Shotgun 5-wideDimePassQuick outAdams7
Skinner gets rid of the ball quickly to Adams on an out to the left. Nice play (CA, 3).
W4433Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassScreenWooster3
Rebels bring pressure and Skinner makes a quick bubble pass to Wooster. Not a perfect pass but a good catch (CA, 2). Didn't look like a very good spot to me but it got the first anyway
W47110Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassScreenBrinkman2
Quick screen to Brinkman on the left, but the ball was underthrown and kept Brinkman from being able to get up field (IN, 2).
W4928Shotgun 4-wideNickelPassScreenBoldin4
Another quick screen, this time to Boldin on the Right (CA, 3). He spins a bit for extra yards, decent play.
O4734Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassDeep inBrinkman0
Skinner gets good protection but throw high and a little behind Brinkman. Would have taken a rediculous catch to make, a costly innacurate throw from Skinner (IN, 1).
Drive Notes: Punt, 27-21, 8:00 4Q. This drive probably shouldn't have ended when it did, and it was almost very costly. Had Wake lost, this would be the critical drive we could point to for why. Didn't eat much clock, didn't make the important play when it mattered. Glad we don't have to worry about that.
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
W20110Shotgun 2-backsDimePassScrambleRinfrette7
Surprising amount of pressure on Skinner here, but he scrambles to the right side and finds Rinfrette who makes a good catch on the way out of bounds (CA, 2).
W2723Shotgun 5-wideDimePassQuick OutM. Williams5
Ole Miss brought a corner blitz but Skinner gets it off quick to Williams on the right sideline. Great catch by Williams on the ball that was slightly high (CA, 2).
W32110Shotgun 4-wideDimePassThrow awayBoldin0
Great protection but great coverage by Ole Miss. Skinner waits as long as possible but ultimately has to throw it away (TA, 0).
W32210Shotgun 2-backsDimePassPostBoldin22
Perfect protection from the line and Skinner finds Boldin wide open over the middle. This was a crucial play and I'm not going to complain, but Skinner actually throws this ball pretty low and I wonder if Boldin could have gotten a few more yards with a better pass (CA, 2).
O46110Shotgun 5-wideDimePassQuick outWooster2
Nenon got beat on a blitz here (-1) and Skinner had to get rid of it in a hurry. He makes a nice pass to Wooster at the right sideline, but Wooster gets tackled before making it out of bounds and comes up limping (CA, 3).
O4428Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassPass InterferenceAdams15
Ole Miss brings a blitz here and with Adams going out for a pass there isn't anyone to pick up the extra guy, so I can't blame anyone for that. Skinner makes an excellent side step to avoid the blitzer and get the deep pass off to Adams. The PI call (a good call for contact early in the route) nets 15 yards.
O29110Shotgun 5-wideDimePassQuick OutWooster5
Another blitz and Skinner gets it off quickly to a wide open Wooster who gets out of bounds with a five yard gain (CA, 3).
O2425Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassDeep outM. Williams0
Rebels still blitzing, Skinner gets off a quick pass to Williams but it's a bit behind him, would have been a great catch though (IN, 1).
O2435Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassThrow awayParker0
Ole Miss blitzes again and there just aren't enough linemen to block them all. Skinner throws it away in Parker's direction which was fine (TA, 0).
Drive Notes: Field Goal (Swank, 41), 30-28, Final. Excellently enginereed drive by Skinner and the Wake offense to go down and make this possible. This drive could be the one we look at later in the year as the one that made sure things stayed on the right track.

To be honest, I was actually surprised by how well the offense performed as a whole. Perhaps the way the Deacs managed to win the game has softened me up a bit, but I really don't feel like anyone was really terrible.

The thing that was most clearly lacking was consistency within drives. It's amazing how quickly a couple of silly mistakes will kill a drive. The reason Wake had so much success in the third and 4th quarters was because they finished their drives and didn't do stupid things to kill them before they could put points on the board.

I though Riley had an excellent game - he thew a very high percentage of catchable passes. Check it out:

QBDOCAINBRTABAPR
Skinner229713-2

Several smart throw aways and a couple of excellent passes (not to mention five touchdowns and zero interceptions through two games) all make me very happy.

The receivers had a good day catching the ball as well. Kevin Harris was the only one to drop a routine catch, and only a couple of "good catches" were dropped. Take a look:

Player0123
Boldin11/11/19/9
Belton---2/2
Adams1-1/11/1
Harris--1/21/2
M. Williams10/21/21/1
Brinkman-0/13/31/1
Wooster-0/12/24/4
Rinfrette--1/1-
Parker1---


Boldin was clearly the primary target, and fulfilled that roll very well. Of course, the one thing that gets lost here is the Pass Interference Josh Adams drew on the final drive. That was probably more valuable than any other catch in the game.

I was very impressed by Russell Nenon's play against the Rebels, partiuclarly in the second half. He was almost single handedly responsible for Brandon Pendergrass's touchdown run (and the run that set up the TD run). No one else had particularly great days, and Birdsong graded out the worst in my analysis.
Player+-T
Birdsong24-2
Nenon41+3
Bailey12-1
McMillin330
Griffin32+1
Looney-1-1
Rinfrette1-+1
Hoag-1-1
Wooster-1-1
Parker2-+2

We'll have to see how this metric works out in the long run, but I think it's a decent start.

So looking at all of this, I really am more encouraged than I am discouraged. There was a lot of improvement in the second half of the game which was particularly exciting to me. Not only did it show a bit more of what this offense is capable of, but it also showed that they aren't going to throw in the towel when things aren't going well.

One thing that I like right now is the platooning of fullbacks. Rinfrette, Belton, and Harris are all getting plenty of snaps, and all of them have been doing good things with their opportunities. If they can all continue to contribute and we can keep them fresh by rolling them in and out all the time then I think that's a great setup.

Hopefully whatever Wooster tweaked on that last drive will be fine by next week (I imagine it will be) and maybe we'll finally get to see Jordan Williams get in the game. The last trip to FSU was certainly a memorable one; I can't wait to see what these guys do this time.

Let me know what you think of this new feature and how you think it could be improved. It's definitely still in development, and if there are things you'd like to see done with it I definitely want to hear your suggestions.


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Wake up call: A winning weekend  

Marcus Tracy scored the Deacs only goal against South Carolina on Sunday afternoon on the way to a 1-0 win and a 4-0 record to start the season. Tracy has a goal in all four games, which is pretty amazing to me. It'll be interesting to see how long he can keep that streak going.

Here's an interesting take on Saturday's game regarding its indication of Ole Miss's reemergence. It also might be the first time I've seen the word "mates" used in an article about American football. Go figure.

No surprise; Swank gets a helmet sticker and the ACC game changing performance for the week.

My preliminary blogpoll ballot will be up later in the day (hopefully before noon). Check back and let me know what you think.

Read More...

Wake Forest 30, Ole Miss 28  

From a fan’s perspective, yesterday’s 30-28 win over Ole Miss had plenty of emotional highs and lows. The game started on a high note when Wake recovered a muffed punt (I guess it just hit someone in the head, but I think it’s still technically a “muff”) and scored a quick touchdown. Unfortunately, the feeling didn’t last as Ole Miss scored 14 unanswered points and took a 14-10 lead into halftime.

The third quarter brought back some good feelings; with Wake scoring 10 points and taking a 20-14 lead into the fourth quarter. The fourth was one of the more nerve-racking quarters of Wake Forest football I’ve ever witnessed, including some pretty terrible moments (Alphonso Smith’s fumble on punt return, phantom pass interference call) to some incredible ones (Pendergrass TD, Sam Swank’s 41 yard game-winning field goal).

It wasn’t looking good when the Rebels scored a touchdown with only 1:01 left on the clock, but Riley Skinner, Sam Swank, and the rest of the Demon Deacons weren’t ready to throw in the towel. The offense moved the ball efficiently, completing two short passes on the sideline to conserve clock before finding D.J. Boldin wide open down the middle for 22 yards. Several plays later (and a heads up timeout call by holder Ryan McManus when the play clock was about to run out) Sam Swank drilled a 41 yard field goal, leading wake to a 30-28 victory.

The final statistics reveal some not-so-good things, but ultimately it’s the score on the board that counts. Ole Miss’s offense out-produced Wake’s—360 yards to 348—and did so in 12 fewer plays than Wake. They outgained Wake 107-81 on the ground and came close in the air (253-267) on 11 fewer plays. Ole Miss also sacked Skinner four times, but Wake’s two interceptions and one fumble recovery (Ole Miss only had a fumble recovery) won the turnover battle.

On the ground Brandon Pendergrass had 49 yards on 8 carries, including two great runs in the third quarter that led to his touchdown. Josh Adams only gained 43 yards on 12 carries. Riley Skinner was 32 of 43 through the air for 267 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. D.J. Boldin had 11 catches for 123 yards, while Marshall Williams and Kevin Harris both had touchdown receptions.

The team Ole Miss put on the field yesterday was much more impressive than the one I expected to see. Jevan Snead is a very good young quarterback with a bright future, and the Rebels have several talented receivers. Their defense, which supposedly has been decimated by injuries, still gave the offense fits, sacking Skinner four times and causing heavy disruption to Wake’s running attack. Houston Nutt is clearly a good coach who has the program moving in a positive direction. In many ways Ole Miss out-played Wake yesterday, but turnovers, penalties, and the “clutch-ness” of Riley Skinner and Sam Swank proved to be too much. They’re going to win some SEC games this year and I think Wake fans are happy they aren’t on schedule again anytime soon.

As for Wake, a win is a win and there shouldn’t be too much complaining, but clearly there is work to be done. I saw a lot of improvement in the second half after a very rough first half, but the Deacs still need to find a way to move the ball on the ground and the defense didn’t have a great performance

I want to talk briefly about the decisions to kick PAT’s instead of going for two after both second half touchdowns. The first one, after the third quarter touchdown, was an absolute no-brainer. In the third quarter of the game in that situation there’s no way it makes sense to go for two. When Wake scored again with 11:37 left in the fourth quarter and again kicked the PAT I heard a lot of people second guessing the decision. I, however, agree with the decision all the way. At that point it was likely Ole Miss would have the ball two more times. Had Wake missed the two point conversion, two field goals would have won the game. Furthermore, with a missed conversion Wake would have been leading by five, 26-21. If things played out the way they did and Ole Miss scored a touchdown with 1:01 left then they’re up 27-26 and have an absolute no-brainer to go for two. If they make the conversion Ole Miss is leading by three, 29-26, and when Wake drives down and makes a field goal it sends the game into overtime instead of to the final whistle and a Wake victory. I think a lot of people are neglecting that side of the equation when they evaluate the decision. I know Jim Grobe said afterwards that he had been second guessing the decision, which is totally understandable, but you have to look at all sides and all possible outcomes and realize that the decision definitely wasn’t a bad one. I’m not saying it would have been wrong to go for two, but kicking the PAT wasn’t wrong either.

Sam Swank deserves to be mentioned again for a great game. Three field goals, including a game winner, and three extra points is a great day from a guy who definitely should be on his way to an All-American season.

Finally, let’s take a look at the questions I asked in the game preview and see how things turned out:

1. What effect will Hurricane/Tropical Storm Hanna have on this game?
Absolutely none, except maybe in the way the teams prepared. I don’t know where the storm went, but when I woke up Saturday morning it was completely clear and for most of the afternoon there weren’t but a few clouds in the sky. It was even pretty hot, about like it always is for early September games. I’m glad it left us alone, but it was weird for it to completely disappear the way it did.

2. Will the offensive line’s pass protection hold up? Will the run blocking improve?
I don’t think we saw a step backwards this week as much as we just didn’t see a step forward. Ole Miss has a talented line and they were able to sack Skinner four times and disrupt the passing game some, but I don’t think the line’s played any worse in pass protection; they just faced a better unit. That’s not to say I think it was acceptable, as I would have much rather seen them step up and play better than last week, but I don’t think it was worse.

I have a similar response to the run game. It was really a pretty similar performance to last week, with plenty of mistakes and struggles. They looked better in the second half, particularly on the drive that ended in Pendergrass’s 12 yard touchdown run, but they did not show the improvement I thought we might see this week.

3. Can the receivers avoid dropping passes?
Pretty good job by the receivers this week. Off the top of my head I can only think of a couple drops towards the end of the game – one from Kevin Harris and another from Marshall Williams. Granted, they came at a crucial point in the game when you don’t want to be having any mistakes at all, but on the whole I thought it was a very good performance from the receiving corps.

4. Will Ole Miss avoid turnovers? Will Wake be okay if they do?
No, the Rebels did not avoid turnovers. Two interceptions and a lost fumble led to 10 Wake Forest points. The fumbled punt that led to the first score by the Deacs could have been the difference in the game. Without that Wake probably goes into halftime in a big hole and may not have been able to climb out in the second half.

5. How beautiful will Deacon Tower be?
It was definitely beautiful, but I was somewhat surprised they didn’t do anything special to commemorate it. I’d love to hear from anyone who was up there for the game what their thoughts are. Is it a great place to watch the game? Are the amenities and service up to par for gameday? I’m guessing the answers are yes, but I’d love to hear about it.

As for my predictions, well, let’s just say they weren’t so good. Other than the fact that Wake won I didn’t really get anything right. I thought the run game would have a better week, including someone going over 100 yards. Seeing as how there weren’t even 100 yards total, clearly that didn’t happen. I said Ole Miss definitely wouldn’t score 27+ points and they did (28). I predicted 31-17, and although I came close with the 31, it clearly wasn’t the game I projected. Ole Miss gets a lot of credit, but a win is a win and I’ll gladly take it.

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If I were an Ole Miss fan right now...  

I wouldn't be too happy that it's sunny and clear outside. Pretty sure that will benefit the Deacs.

I'm headed over to the stadium, sorry we weren't able to get a live blog together - apparently no one was interested in heading it up. Hopefully we'll all be in good moods next time you hear from me!

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#20 Wake Forest vs. Ole Miss: Game Preview  

After an impressive victory at Baylor last week it’s impossible not to be excited about tomorrow’s home opener against the Ole Miss Rebels. Not even a hurricane (okay, maybe tropical storm) can temper the excitement Wake fans are feeling about this one. Come 3:30 Saturday afternoon BB&T Field will be full of fans and another new era of the Wake Forest football program will be ready to begin.

The Details:
Date: Saturday, September 6, 2008
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: BB&T Field, Winston-Salem, North Carolina
Stadium: BB&T Field
Broadcast: ABC/ESPN2, ISP Radio Network (TV coverage maps)

Deacon Tower hopes to be christened with a victory Saturday, and I think the Demon Deacons are ready to do just that. The game marks only the second time in history that Wake has faced Ole Miss on the football field, having defeated the Rebels 27-3 in Oxford during the 2006 ACC championship run.

Jim Grobe will be looking for his sixth victory in a home opener, having won five of his previous seven. Furthermore, a Wake Forest victory will be number 400 in the history of Demon Deacon football.

The Rebels, led by new head coach Houston Nutt and sophomore quarterback Jevan Snead, looked good in their opener last week, defeating Memphis 41-24. It was the most points the Rebels had scored in a game since 2003. I don’t think they’re going to get close to that record again this week.

Ole Miss’s defensive line has been decimated by injuries, and will be without three fourths of the projected starting line – tackles Peria Jerry and Ted Laurent and end Greg Hardy are all out. Facing a weaker defensive line than originally expected should be a big advantage for the Deacs, whose offensive line is still developing. Perhaps this will allow the running game to get going a bit more this week.

Wake has no injuries to starters currently, and sophomore receiver Jordan Williams is not listed in this week’s injury report. He wasn’t listed last week and still sat out, so it remains to be seen if he will play, but he will be available.

Wake’s defense proved what everyone thought they already knew last week – that they’re very very good. I expect them to rattle young quarterback Jevan Snead and keep the running game from ever getting much momentum

I feel very confident about this game, and since it seemed to work pretty well last week, I’m going to ask some questions that we can hopefully answer after the game.

1. What effect will Hurricane/Tropical Storm Hanna have on this game?
Projections continue to show the storm hitting farther east and being farther north by the time we kick off, but it still seems very possible that we’ll see some wetness and maybe some gusty winds as well. If the rain is gone by game time it should be a great environment for fans since it will be cool, but for the players wind could definitely be an issue. The field turf is designed to hold up pretty well in wet weather, so unless it’s actually raining during the game I don’t think we’ll see too much of an issue there.

2. Will the offensive line’s pass protection hold up? Will the run blocking improve?
Last week the pass protection was pretty stellar. Skinner was only sacked once and almost always had plenty of time. Hopefully the line will continue that this week. I would love to see some improvement in the running game. I place most of the blame for last week’s running woes on the line, so hopefully they have a better performance this week. Given the state of Ole Miss’s defensive line I feel pretty good about that happening.

3. Can the receivers avoid dropping passes?
D.J. Boldin had a couple of pretty bad drops last week, and there were a couple of others who dropped passes as well. It will be more difficult to get away with mistakes like that this week.

4. Will Ole Miss avoid turnovers? Will Wake be okay if they do?
Last week Wake benefited from several Baylor turnovers. Granted, the Deacs turned it over a couple of times too, but I think the Rebels may be a bit better at holding on to the ball. I don’t want to see Wake relying on gifts like that this week.

5. How beautiful will Deacon Tower be?
The answer to this question seems pretty obvious already, but I have a feeling we’ll be even more amazed by it in person.

As for my predictions, I said earlier this week that I thought Wake would win by 14-17 points. I’ve seen plenty of projections that have Ole Miss scoring 27+ points and I just don’t understand how anyone thinks they can do that against Wake’s defense. Wake’s running game has more success this week (one back will go over 100 yards) on the way to a 31-17 victory over the Rebels.

Should I be asking different questions? Are my predictions absurd? Let me know in the comments.

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5 Good Questions: Ole Miss  

5 Good Questions rolls along this week, getting some help from Seth at The Hotty Toddy Blog. His answers to my questions are below, and when he puts them up, I'll link to my questions to his answers. Here are my answers to his questions. Enjoy!

1. Ole Miss played pretty well to start the season against Memphis and it seems like Houston Nutt has the Rebels moving in the right direction. What is Nutt doing to turn the program around?

Coaching. Our last coach was an outstanding recruiter but seemed to be in over his head in regards to running a college team. Nutt has a well established history at Arkansas. He has the leftover talent (our most talented team since the Eli days) and his coaching skills with Coach O's talent is a good match.
2. How important is this game against Wake Forest to the Ole Miss football program and its fans? What would a win mean for this team? A loss?
This is an important game for the Rebels. A win would mean 2-0 with a good shot at being 4-0 heading into the Florida game. Also, anytime you can get a win against an Out of Conference team it always helps because wins in the SEC are hard to come by. A loss would hurt but not be devastating as it would be to a ranked Out of Conference team.
3. Against Memphis it seems the Rebels went with a running back by committee approach. Do you expect to see this approach all season? How effective do you think it will be in the long run?
Yes. We have several talented RB's. Houston Nutt loves to run by committee as he did at Arkansas. How well it works against WF will be a better gauge of how successful it will be this season.
4. Where do you think Ole Miss matches up well against Wake Forest? Where do they match up poorly?
Our O line is strong and should provide a good push for our running game. Our D line is suffering from some big losses but we still have some talent there. Memphis ran the spread offense well against us. Despite the score, they had over 400 yards of Offense. Wake Forest has a talented Offense so we need to improve in the secondary and on the line in order to have a good change of winning.
5. Very few people bite on this, but I always ask anyway: What will the final score be on Saturday? How many games will the Rebels win this season?
I think the game will be decided by 7 points or less. As for the rest of the season, I think 6-8 wins is realistic this year.
Thanks to Seth for taking the time to answer these questions. For more on Ole Miss, make sure to visit The Hotty Toddy Blog.

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