Duke Preview

I've realized something in beginning this blog: I've never really thought about sports from a mostly analytical point of view. I watch the games as a fan, root for my teams, get excited about the really good plays and players, and get very upset about bad plays and players. However I don't pay close enough attention when it comes to analyzing what actually went right or wrong down to the very last details.

Now I do want this to be a blog written primarily by a fan, so I will be biased towards Wake, I will talk about things from a fan's point, and I probably won't apologize for it. But, as readers I expect you to be interested in reading from someone who is a fan but is also knowledgeable and able to write analytically about what's going on on the court/field etc.

So, now that I expect to be writing about many major Wake sporting events, I'm sure my viewpoint will become one that pays more attention to these details and is more analytical. But at this point, I just haven't watched the games in such a way that allows me to have formed many of my own detailed analysis or opinions. Nonetheless, with help from some various statistics and just my own general thoughts, I hope to start things off along those lines right now.

So with that out of the way, let's take a look at this weekend contest at Duke's Wallace Wade Stadium. My first instinct is that we should kill them, but I know that is the emotional fan in me. Now that doesn't mean we don't have the ability to crush them, but I don't think we should assume it will happen. Before getting to the final score, I'll take a look at how our opposing units match up.

Wake Defense vs. Duke Run Game
Wake has been holding opponents to 115 ypg and 2.9 ypc, which is about middle of the pack in the ACC, and Duke is only rushing for 60 a game, so I would expect Wake to have little difficulty shutting down the run game. Duke knows the run game is not their strong suit, so I expect to see a mostly aerial attack on Saturday.

Wake Defense vs. Duke Passing Game
Thaddeus Lewis may be the real deal, and regardless of his long term prospects, Wake must focus on the fact that he has played outstanding football this season. He will attack us early and often, and we had better be ready. Our defense has been surrendering 237 ypg through the air, a number that may not improve this week. Although Alphonso Smith and Chip Vaughn are proven solid players in the secondary, the overall play of our secondary is still very inconsistent, which should be our biggest worry against Duke. On the bright side, Duke's pass block is less than solid, so if we can get into the backfield with guys like Jeremy Thompson, we may be able to help the secondary out. If Wake plays solid secondary defense and gets some pressure in the backfield, they should have no problem coming away with a victory.

Wake Run vs Duke Defense
The running game has been one of the most frustrating aspects of our attack this season. Micah Andrews has been less than impressive, and even this week Coach Grobe won't say that Josh Adams is the starter. Although I expect Adams to get the bulk of the carries on Saturday, the fact of the matter is our run game is still too inconsistent to rely on. That being said, Duke is giving up 190 ypg on the ground, so if we can get either Andrews, Adams, or both going, it could be a good day on the ground.

Wake Pass vs. Duke Defense
The Deac's passing game has also been frustrating this year, do in large part to the injury to Riley Skinner and the inability of any receiver other than Kenny Moore to catch a pass (Kevin Marion I'm talking about you!). However, I don't believe Duke's passing defense is particularly scary and I expect Riley to be at nearly 100%, meaning we should be able to have a pretty good day through the air.

Special Teams
I doubt there will be much argument with me saying Wake's special teams are significantly better than Duke's. Sam Swank may not look quite as dominant as last year, but he is still one of the best kickers in the ACC and the rest of our special teams have looked pretty good as well. Duke has blocked three kicks this year, the most in the ACC, which is something to look out for, but I think we'll be able to handle them.

So...
As you have probably gathered, I'm cautiously hopeful about this game. As much as I would love to see us come out and play up to our abilities with our best performance of the season, I'm not really sure we're there yet. If we take care of Duke's passing game (easier said than done) then we shouldn't have too many problems, but if Thad Lewis gets going it could be a closer game than Wake fans are hoping for. As David Dohrmann pointed out yesterday, Duke has a tendency to make stupid mistakes that come back to bite them, which I expect to see this weekend.

I am confidently expecting a win this weekend, but not by as comfortable a margin as I would like. Final score: Wake 31, Duke 21.

Finally, if you disagree with something I've said I'd love to hear about it. I don't claim to know everything and I'd love for others to participate here through the comments below. Also, I'll be playing baseball this Saturday afternoon and probably won't get to see the game until I watch it on ACC Select Saturday night. Hopefully I'll be able to post my thoughts on Sunday.