Lessons from the Enemy

David Dohrmann, Duke football columnist for Scout.com, graciously agreed to subject himself to five questions with the OGB. David's answers to my most pressing questions:

1. I think it’s safe to say that Duke fans have been reasonably impressed by the Blue Devils' offensive effort the last few weeks, and particularly with the play of Thaddeus Lewis. Is he as talented as his recent performances suggest, or is he just a flash in the pan?

David Dohrmann: Thad Lewis is absolutely the real deal. He was thrown into the fire last season as a true freshman. The Duke coaching staff was hoping to redshirt Lewis in 2006, but with the suspension of then starter Zach Asack and the struggles of former QB turned LB Marcus Jones, Lewis was easily the best option. He definitely had some growing pains last season. He looked great at times (like the Duke-Wake game last season, his first career start) and bad at others (Virginia and Virginia Tech). Still, he ended the season with the 4th most passing yards by a freshman in ACC history. Considering how bad the Duke offensive line performed a season ago, that is quite an accomplishment.
This season, the offense as a whole struggled out of the gate. The offensive line was not giving Lewis any time to throw, hence he was having to throw a lot of balls away and could not get into any sort of rhythm. You have to remember, Duke changed offensive coordinators from last year (actually it’s the 4th year in a row we’ve changed OCs) so there seemed to be an adjustment period getting used to new OC Peter Vaas. Vaas’ last coaching position was leading Brady Quinn to all-American honors at Notre Dame. In game 3 against Northwestern, things just started to click for Lewis. He was making his reads quickly and delivering the ball on target. This has continued for the past 3 ball games. After game two, his QB efficiency rating was 75. It is now 149. He’s been the ACC’s best QB over the last three weeks and given the wide receivers Duke has, there is no reason to think it won’t continue. He is a natural leader and for the first time in 9 years, Duke fans are actually excited when the offense comes on the field. Duke finally has a QB that can play at the high-BCS level. Now if Duke can get the defense to do the same, they are going to really surprise some people.

2. I know Duke fans see the Blue Devils as a team making great improving strides. Nonetheless, these strides are yet to manifest themselves in too many wins. Looking past this year, what kind of time frame would you put on becoming what you would consider to be a respectable team in the ACC?

DD: The pressure is on Ted Roof right now. He was originally given 5 years to turn the program around, but the winless 2006 season might have caused the timetable to accelerate. Duke needs to win more games this year. Despite the 1-4 record, this is definitely possible. Duke could very easily be 3-2 or even 4-1 right now. The Devils let the opener get away from them in the second half, but consider all of the games since. They missed 3 field goals and fumbled the ball away inside the red-zone line in a 12 point loss to Virginia. They beat Nortwestern. They blew a double-digit 4th quarter lead against Navy, which included a fumble inside the Navy 10, a missed FG, and a 80-yard TD called back because of penalty all in the 4th quarter. Last week against Miami, they were on the Miami 35 with 3 minutes remaining down by 3. Duke is right there, now they need to execute in crunch time. In the past few seasons, Duke has been in a few games, but getting their doors blown off the rest of the time. This year, Duke has been in every contest in the second half, even the UConn game. They need to learn to execute in crunch time. There is tangible progress. The Wake Forest game will be a measuring stick for how the program is coming.

3. Turning our focus to this weekend, where do you believe Duke matches up best against the Deacs? Where do you expect to struggle the most?

DD: Wake is going to have a tough time covering the Duke wide receivers. Alphonso Smith is a good player, but Duke’s receivers are big, strong guys that are as good or better than anything Wake has seen this year. Plus, Thad Lewis can really throw the ball. Expect Duke to go after the Wake safeties. Now that Ghee and Gattis are gone, Duke will surely test the new guys.
On defense, the Duke defensive line is quite talented. Wake will find that Duke will be quite tough to block up front. Vince Oghobaase is one of the most talented players in the conference and he’s starting to play like it. DE Pat Bailey is light for a defensive end, but he has great speed on the edge and holds up quite well at the point of attack. CB Leon Wright is developing into a good cover corner that is excellent in run support on the outside.
However, if Duke was great in all phases of the game, they would not be 1-4. Offensively, Duke will need to find a way to block Jeremy Thompson. They have not fared well in pass protection this year. Chris Long (UVA) absolutely destroyed the Duke OL. UConn was also in the backfield all day. I thought they might have had some of their protection issues figured out, but they gave up 9 sacks to Miami in the last game. This is one of the key battles of the game. When Duke is able to give Lewis time, he will pick defenses apart.
Defensively, Duke has defended the run OK this year, but has been eaten alive with the short passing game. Teams are completing 67% of their passes against the Duke defense this year. I think the reasons are part schematic and part personnel. Duke is giving up a high completion percentage, but is not giving up the long ball. Also, the Devils are playing their 3 best linebackers, unfortunately two of them are strictly middle linebackers. The conference’s leading tackler is sophomore Vincent Rey. He’s a 255 hulk in the middle. Of course the name every associates with Duke defense is Mike Tauiliili. He’s a high-energy guy that is small and slow. Both players can be exposed in coverage, which is part of the reason Duke is last in pass efficiency defense.
The biggest difference between the two teams right now is in the kicking game. Wake has Sam Swank a reliable kicker with a great leg. Duke has player X kicking for us this weekend. Our strong legged kicker, Joe Surgan, has the yips and has already missed two extra points this year. Things are so bad, Duke had open tryouts for the kick position last week. Backup punter Nick Maggio is kicking extra points right now, but lack of consistent placekicking has basically taken the field goal out of play. Duke is basically forced to try for touchdowns every time.

4. Clearly Wake needs a win this weekend to get our record back above .500 and make it clear that we aren’t going to let ourselves fall back into the cellar of the ACC. What would a win this weekend mean for Duke?

DD: A win for Duke would mean confidence in themselves and in the staff. The last 4 weeks, Duke has been right in ball games, but only once has been able to come out with a win. They always seem to find new and inventive ways to lose. I firmly believe that Duke’s talent level is overall far ahead of where it has been the last few seasons and is on par with Wake. All the recruiting ranking over the past 4-5 years bear this out. They now need to gain that same confidence that Jim Grobe and his staff has instilled in his players. Wake, however, is strong where it counts (offensive line) and usually out-executes their opponents. Duke is almost the exact opposite. Offensive line might be the biggest weakness and they always seem to make the one killer mistake that lets the opponent wriggle of the hook. That is the biggest difference in the programs at this point.

5. Finally, go ahead and make your prediction now: What will the final score be on Saturday, and what will Duke’s record be at the end of the season?

DD: Unlike the last two games in Durham, Wake will not come in here and roll. The Duke offense is primed for another big day and will score enough points to stay in the game. If your coaches watch game film (and I know they do), they will dink and dunk Duke to death with the short passing game. This game will be close into the 4th quarter, but Duke will make a killer mistake and Wake will take full advantage of it and come away with a 7-point win.
As for the season, Duke will win 2 more games despite the difficult schedule ahead. People thought that Duke’s early season schedule would [allow] the Devils to ease into the meat of the schedule later on. As of right now, Duke’s 4 losses have comes to teams whose combined record is 16-4. So much for the light early season schedule. Still, Duke can score points. That gives them a shot in just about every game.

Huge thanks to David for subjecting himself to these questions and putting some considerable effort into his thorough responses. His columns from The Devils Den can be found here.