Preseason Blogpoll
I've been invited to join the 2008 Blogpoll, which is just like the AP poll except all the voters are bloggers like me. It's very easy to analyze the preseason polls that everyone else comes out with, but I'm finding out it's much more difficult to come up with one of your own.
Brian Cook of mgoblog, who runs the poll, recently posted these guidelines regarding the philosophy behind Blogpoll. I thought long and hard about whether or not I should submit a ballot that reflects what I think things will look like on the morning of January 9, 2009 or one that reflects a sort of "power rankings" right now. I opted for the latter, using my (limited) knowledge of every team to determine who would beat who in a completely neutral setting. Once we get a few weeks into the season I plan on switching to a "resume" method of balloting, looking at each team's body of work to that point.
One of the great things about Blogpoll is that it encourages every pollster to interact with his readers regarding his ballot. So, here is my preliminary 2008 preseason ballot. Let me know what you like, what you don't like, and why. Feel free to ask questions about my ballot and I'll do my best to explain myself. Ultimately I hope to improve my ballot based on your feedback, so fire away. I have to submit my final ballot on Monday morning, so get cracking.
Here's my tentative ballot:
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma |  25 |
| 2 | Southern Cal | 24 |
| 3 | Georgia | 23 |
| 4 | Missouri | 22 |
| 5 | Florida | 21 |
| 6 | Clemson | 20 |
| 7 | Ohio State | 19 |
| 8 | LSU | 18 |
| 9 | Wake Forest | 17 |
| 10 | Auburn | 16 |
| 11 | Texas | 15 |
| 12 | West Virginia | 14 |
| 13 | Wisconsin | 13 |
| 14 | Oregon | 12 |
| 15 | Texas Tech | 11 |
| 16 | Brigham Young | 10 |
| 17 | Arizona State | 9 |
| 18 | Virginia Tech | 8 |
| 19 | Kansas | 7 |
| 20 | Tennessee | 6 |
| 21 | South Florida | 5 |
| 22 | Florida State | 4 |
| 23 | Utah | 3 |
| 24 | Illinois | 2 |
| 25 | Alabama | 1 |
Leave a comment and let me know what you think.
8/15/08, 10:30 AM
Since it is only a preseason poll, it's not a huge deal but what were the factors that made you put Alabama and Florida State where they are?
8/15/08, 10:49 AM
When I got down past about 20 it definitely got a bit interesting. I felt like there were a handful of teams that could have gone in there almost interchangeably. South Carolina, Fresno, maybe a Penn State or Michigan - I considered several other schools in those spots.
Ultimately, though, I don't buy the hype around Michigan or Penn State. They may end up there but I think those teams I have towards the bottom of the top 25 would beat them in the neutral setting that I used to create the rankings.
I think FSU is the fourth best team in the ACC and has a lot of talent. At that point I couldn't find another major conference school that I really thought was better. Although it wasn't necessarily a conscious part of my decision making, I'm naturally biased towards the ACC and that probably shows up a bit in this as well.
Alabama is a team with a lot of talent that I think has the chance to make waves in the SEC this year. Ultimately I just didn't feel comfortable putting one of those other teams I mentioned in that 25 spot, and I felt comfortable with Bama.
Who would you have down towards the bottom, thelegacyx4?
8/15/08, 1:24 PM
My biggest problem is that I see teams ranked and think they shouldn't be there and just leave it at that instead of thinking who should replace them.
I think my biggest issue is that I just don't buy the hype for Alabama. And I would have put FSU closer to 25.
8/15/08, 3:55 PM
Fair enough. I'm not afraid to admit that I might be more willing to buy into the Alabama hype thanks to connections I have there through some friends. Since it's a preseason poll I think I'm going to have to allow myself that.
8/15/08, 7:01 PM
Zach, this is Kyle from Houston. Just wanted to let you know that your foolish OU lovefest shows through in your preseason poll ;-). In other news, I think I was down in your neck of the woods last night ... I ate a place next to St. Thomas High. You went there, no? Or was it St. Johns?
8/15/08, 7:20 PM
You may have caught me, Kyle, but I still think it's a legitimate pick.
I was a St. John's guy, but still the same area. Certainly a lot better place to be than the boonies you live in.
8/16/08, 11:04 AM
Wake might be a little too high. If you are familiar with the blogpoll, the CK award is given out to the pollster who ranks his team much higher than the average ballot. The winner of the CK award was upset probably 4-5 times in the following week last year. Bottom line, beware the wrath of the CK award (which you may be in danger of getting with this ballot).
8/16/08, 2:09 PM
I am familiar with the CK award, although not it's history of predicting losses.
I haven't looked at everyone's ballots yet, but most of the handful I've looked at do have the Deacs in the top 15, so I'm not that far off. Still, I see what you're saying, I just feel pretty strongly about this team.
I'm really pretty confident that Wake would be the teams below it. I recognize that there is almost definitely some homerism there, but I have trouble making myself put them lower just because other people think they should be.
If you've got a convincing reason for me to move them lower than hit me with it.
8/16/08, 3:40 PM
I am the same person who left the previous anonymous post. I'll now go by UMatWake.
I am a Michigan fan going to Wake for grad school, and I read mgoblog daily. I go to most Wake home games and I also try to catch every Michigan game I can. I'm not sure of the exact teams going down after given out the CK award, but I remember quite a few.
As far as not ranking Wake so high, I guess the only reason I would have is that the offense has question marks on the line and at receiver. I'm not convinced that they will be able to move the ball consistently. I just think that Wake might play a lot of close games this year. The defense, as you say, should be one of the best in the nation, but they still have some questions on the dline in my opinion. I think Wake will be good, but I would probably rank them in the 15-20 range right now.
I just found this blog after reading about the blogpoll on mgoblog. I'll try to leave comments on here during the season as well.
8/16/08, 3:58 PM
Good to have you here, UMW. I see what you're saying and I think they're valid concerns. I'm sure there's some homerism going into my ranking.
You've got me thinking about it and I may have to drop them a couple spots to 11ish. I'm pretty sure 11 is the highest anyone else has them right now, so maybe I put myself in a bit safer spot if I drop to that area.
The joys of poll politics!
8/18/08, 12:10 PM
Zach
Here are my thoughts:
I think Ohio State and West Virgina should be higher. My rationale is that I suspect that given their competition within their own conferences they will end up winning a bunch of games and challending for the top spot in December. (Also, I have really gotten into using WVU as my team in NCAA 2009 and Noel Divine is unstoppable.)
Ditto for Va Tech, since they should have 5 easy wins coming from Atlantic Division foes.
I'd use the reverse logic for UGa and Bama. That conference is just to damned tough. It's hard to see anyone coming out of conference play without at least two losses.
I have to agree with umatwake about our offense. I think it may be tough for us to move the ball with any consistency. I think #13 spot is a realistic one. . .
8/19/08, 2:19 PM
deacon4life - I see what you're saying, and if I was doing my ballot that way then I would agree with you. However, from the beginning I decided that I wasn't going to try to predict the final standings with my preseason ballot - meaning I don't want to try to predict the future.
Rather, I approached this one as a "power rankings," indicating who would beat who in a completely neutral situation. I agree that West Virginia and Ohio State will win lots of games and may end up higher, but for now I don't think they're better football teams than the ones above them and therefore am not going to rank them higher.
Does that make some sense or do I sound crazy?