Replay Booth: Offense vs. Ole Miss  

Before the season began I knew I wanted to go back and analyze the film from each game to get a deeper understanding of what went on and how everyone played. Until I tried to do it after the Baylor game, I had no idea what I was getting myself into. It's a several hour process just to break down the game for one side of the ball, and since I hadn't done it before I had to figure out the best way to format the information for the website through a fair bit of trial and error.

Obviously things didn't quite work with Baylor. I had tried to gather what was probably too much information and couldn't organize it coherently, much less make it readable in an online format. Now that I've got some idea of what I'm doing, I may try to go back and get Baylor done, but this post focuses on the offense against Ole Miss. Hopefully Defense will come later today or tomorrow.

Couple things I need to state up front. First, I had a little help on this, "borrowing" (with permission, of course) some of the methods and metrics Brian Cook uses on his Michigan blog, MGOBlog. Until I have time to fully explain the way things work, I may just link to his explanations so that you can get an idea of what different things are.

First you'll see a play-by-play breakdown of every offensive play in the game. The factual data about the play will be listed first, followed by some more subjective information and analysis. Within this analysis you'll find various acronyms and numbers that are part of the grading system (which I'm about to explain). The individual player grading charts will follow after the big game chart.

I really like Brian's methods for evaluating/grading quarterbacks and receivers. For quarterbacks we'll place every throw into one of the following categories:

  • DO: Dead on (must be a really perfect pass, usually as part of a big play)
  • CA: Catchable - a good accurate throw, most good short throws fall in this category
  • IN: Inaccurate - A throw that was off target - usually uncatchable unless there was a great catch
  • BR: Bad Read - pretty self explanatory - QB makes a dumb throw
  • TA: Throwaway - Coverage and/or pressure forces QB to just throw the ball away
  • PR: Pressure - Sacks, forced scrambles
Those are the basics, although a more complete definition can be found here.

Receivers have a numbering system that goes as follows:
  • 0 - Ball was completely uncatchable, but he was the "intended" receiver
  • 1 - Very difficult catch
  • 2 - Difficult catch
  • 3 - Routine catch
In the summary chart you'll see that these will be expressed as a fraction of successes out of opportunities - i.e. if a guy has three difficult catch opportunities and makes two of them, he'd be 2/3 under "2."

For offensive linemen and other blockers I made up my own simple metric. If a guy makes a particularly good block on a play he gets a "+1" and if he clearly messes up a block he gets a "-1." It's not perfect because it's unable to account for plays where everyone does their job but no one does anything spectacular, but we can work on that in the future. This will work for now.

I don't have any good ideas for how to grade running backs, so they're left out in the cold for now. Let me know if you have any ideas on that.

That should be enough of an introduction, so let's take a look at what happened. Remember, I'm not a professional or a coach, and I haven't played competitive football since high school. This is just my subjective analysis of the game. Feel free to agree or disagree with me and let me know about it if you so choose. Here we go...



LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
W20110Shotgun 4-wideNickelRunInside drawAdams0
An inside draw gets blown up on the backside by the defensive end. Griffin appeared to be pulling, but he never got far enough to make any kind of hole (-1). I'm not sure he really could have done anything, but there seemed to be some indicision from Adams which didn't help (-1).
W20210Ace tight4-3 basePassPA bootBoldin16
Play action pass, Skinner bootlegs out to the right and finds D.J. Boldin on a 12 yard out, totally wide open (CA, 3). Protection was good - pressure came from a linebacker but no one could have blocked him. Skinner did well to make a good pass.
W36110Ace tight4-3 baseRunBad snapSkinner-1
Skinner never got the snap - it fell right to the turf. I'm going to have to give the mistake to Bailey (-1).
W35211Shotgun 5-wideDimePassSackSkinner-5
I know that in college football sacks technically count as run plays, but I think that's stupid so I'm calling it a pass (PR). This was not a good play for the line - pressure came from both sides and Birdson, McMllin, and Griffin all looked bad (-1 for each).
W30316Shotgun 2-backsNickelPassFlareBelton15
Good protection all around. Good check down by Skinner (CA), good catch and run by Belton(3). Would have liked to see coach go for it on 4th and half a yard, but obviously that ended up working out just fine.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 12:30 1st. Fumbles and poor protection were costly
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
O14110Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassThrow awaySkinner0
Fine protection, Skinner feels space to the right and scrambles that way but coverage is good. Throws it away out of bounds in Adams direction (TA,0)
O14210Ace tightNickelPassPAHarris14
Good protection, nice route from Harris coming from a TE position and a perfect throw (CA, 2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown (Swank), 7-0, 11:50 1st. Good job capitalizing on opportunity after punt recovery.
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
W29110Shotgun 2-backsNickelRunOptionAdams21
Skinner and Adams run the option to the right and that side of the line blocks down well (+1). Skinner makes the right read and Boldin makes a nice downfield block to spring Adams for a few extra yards. Great play all around.
W50110Shotgun 3-wideNickelPassCurlHarris0
Decent pressure from Ole Miss; Birdsong got manhandled (-1). Skinner makes a fine throw hitting Harris in the numbers but he just drops it (CA, 3).
W50210Shotgun 3-wide4-3 blitzPenaltyFalse startBirdsong-5
Can't do that. First penatly of the season.
W45215Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassDeep flyM. Williams0
Good pass protection once again. Skinner buys time scrambling right and throws on the move deep down the sideline to M. Williams. It was a pretty good pass considering how it was thrown but it was slightly underthrown. It would have been a rediculous catch by Williams (IN, 1).
W45315Shotgun 4-wideNickelPassFlareBoldin7
Skinner sidesteps the corner blitz and finds Boldin, but there was no way to get the needed 15 yards (CA, 3).
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-0, 7:51 1Q.
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
W23110I4-3 baseRunBlastPendergrass3
First play out of the I is an inside run to the right. Nenon makes a nice cut block (+1) and Bailey seals the backside (+1).
W2627Shotgun 3-wideNickelRunDrawPendergrass3
The whole line makes a pretty good push on this inside draw and Pendergrass picks up 3 more. Didn't exactly make any huge holes, but the line won the initial battle on this running play.
W2934Shotgun 3-wideNickelPassScrambleSkinner-2
Skinner ends up scrambling out of bounds to the left. A ""coverage sack"" as Skinner had plenty of time and just didn't have anyone open (TA - didn't throw it, but it had the same effect). The line did a good job sealing everything off to the right.
W2746PuntReturnPuntRoughing the KickerSwank15
Roughing the kicker on Ole Miss saves Wake it's first three and out
W42110Shotgun 2-backs4-3 baseRunDrawBelton-3
Inside draw ot the left. No push and Birdsong completely ignores the linebacker that gets in the backfield to make the tackle (-1).
W39213Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassCurlBrinkman12
Skinner sees the blitz and gets the pass of immedietly. Brinkman was wide open for the slightly high but catchable pass (CA, 2).
O4931Ace tight4-3 baseRunCounterPendergrass-1
The blockers held their own but Pendergrass danced around the backfield instead of trying to get up the field (-1). 0-4 on 3rd down so far.
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-7 15:00 2Q. Can't capitalize on opportunity
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
W29110Ace tightNickelPassSackSkinner-9
That sack happened in a HURRY. Nothing at all Skinner could have done (PR). I don't know what Bailey and Looney thought they were doing, but the guy lined up right between the two of them got to Skinner completely untouched (-1 for both). Ugly.
W20219Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassQuick outWooster7
Good quick play to an open Wooster on the right (CA, 3).
W27312Shotgun 2-backsNickelPassDeep flyM. Williams0
Not only was Williams double covered, but Skinner overthrew him by a good 5 yards (BR, IN, 0)
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-7, 10:00 2Q. Three and outs hurt.
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
W32110I4-3 baseRunBlastAdams3
Inside run to the right is almost blown up in the backfield due to a missed block by McMillin (-1). Adams does well to avoid that tackler and gain positive yardage (+1).
W3527Shotgun 2-backsNickelRunShovelAdams5
Impressive underhand shovel to Adams. Nice little play, would like to see it again.
W 4032Ace tight4-3 basePassPA bootBelton6
Nice play action and good throw and catch from Skinner to Belton (CA, 3).
W47110Shotgun 5-wideNickelPenaltyOffsidesPowe5
We'll take it.
O4815Ace tight4-3 baseRunOff TackleAdams1
Almost a nice running play but Adams is barely tripped up.
O4724Shotgun 4-wideDimePassQuick screenAdams2
Right play called for the blitz, but Skinner's throw is low, keeping Adams from being able to get up field very quickly (IN, 2).
O4532I?4-3 ?PassQuick OutHarris2
TV didn't catch beginning of play, looked like an I formation, maybe Ace. Quick throw to Harris is just short of the first (CA, 3). Another failed conversion.
O434inAce tight4-3 baseRunSneakSkinner1
QB sneak to the right for the 1st. Good overall push.
O42110Shotgun 5-wideDimePassScreenBoldin7
Great blitz read to get the bubble screen to Boldin (CA, 3). Boldin did a good job getting yards after the catch.
O3523Shotgun 4-wideNickelPassPA screenWooster10
Great play action play to get the ball to Wooster on the sideline (CA, 3). M. Williams made a nice block to spring him for good yardage.
O25110Ace tight4-3 baseRunOff-tackleAdams7
A shoelace tackle prevents Adams from a HUGE gain. Rinfrette makes a nice cut block in the backfield to open things up (+1)
O1823Ace tight4-3 baseRunDiveAdams1
Blocking wasn't bad but it didn't open a hole. Adams gets what he can.
O1732Shotgun 2-backsDimePassSlantBoldin9
Great quick throw and catch on the slant to pick up a first down (CA, 3).
O919Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassScrambleSkinner2
Good seal by Hoag to make the scramble possible (+1). Good coverage by Ole Miss
O727Ace tight4-3 baseRunDiveAdams5
Adams hits hole hard right up the middle. Looked like McMillin with a pretty good block (+1)
O333Shotgun 3-wide4-3 basePassScreenAdams-1
Not a great play call - there really wasn't any way Adams could have gotten to the endzone. Tackles Birdsong and Griffin provided good protection (+1), but Skinner's throw was innacurate and didn't help anything (IN, 1)
Drive Notes: Field Goal, 10-14, Halftime. Best drive of the game so far, but when you get down that close you've got to but 7 on the board.
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
W24110Shotgun 3-wideNickelPassSlantBoldin14
Good quick throw, nice protection, good route and run after catch (CA, 3).
W38110Shotgun 3-wideNickelPassPA screenBoldin7
Play action screen pass to Boldin on the left. Exactly like you draw it up (CA, 3).
W4523Ace tight3-4 baseRunDiveAdams-3
Adams running inside the tackle to the left. Defensive end comes in untouched. Looked like Wooster should have picked up him up (-1).
W4236Shotgun 5-wideDimePassSackSkinner-7
Absolutely terrible blocking. Skinner had no time when both Birdsong and McMillin totally blew their blocks (-1 for each, PR)
Drive Notes: Punt, 10-14 10:00 3Q. Great start to the drive is totally killed by back to back poorly blocked plays.
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
O45110Shotgun 2-backsNickelPassQuick outM. Williams0
Skinner gets it off quickly with a pretty good pass to Williams right on the sideline. It looked like Williams probably could have caught it but just didn't pull it in fast enough (CA, 2).
O45210Shotgun 4-wide3-4 blitzRunDrawAdams2
Inside draw gets a couple. Not sure I like the play call on 2nd and 10. Pretty good block by Andrew Parker pulling from the TE position (+1)
O4338Shotgun 4-wide4-3 basePassFlyBoldin26
Blitz coming and picked up reasonably well, Skinner gets pass off quickly. Ball was thrown to the perfect place but Boldin still made an awesome catch (DO, 1).
O17110Ace tight4-3 baseRunDiveAdams6
One of the best inside runs of the day. A good hole provided by McMillin and Griffin (+1).
O1225I4-3 baseRunDiveAdams2
Ole Miss brought 8 and there just weren't enough blockers. Still, not much of a push from the line.
O1033Ace tight4-3 basePassPAWooster0
Play action with good protection, looked like it might be a TD pass to Wooster but the defender made a good play on the ball. I still think Wooster may have been able to catch it, though (CA, 1).
Drive Notes: Field Goal, 13-14 6:00 3Q. Another one of those drives where you'd like to get a TD instead of a field goal.
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
O41110Shotgun 5-wide4-3 blitzPassOutWooster4
Ole Miss brings pressure and the protection holds long enough to get the pass off. Really wasn't a great throw, good catch by Wooster (IN, 2).
O3626Shotgun 2-backs4-3 baseRunOptionSkinner5
Good read by Skinner to keep the ball. Birdsong makes a nice block (+1).
O3231Ace tight4-3 baseRunDivePendergrass1
TV cut off the beginning of the play, but there wasn't any push from the line. No penetration, but no push either. Pendergrass couldn't make it happen alone.
O3141I4-3 blitzRunDiveRinfrette1
Rinfrette hits the hole quick to get the first. I like the fake pitch, too.
O31110Ace tight4-3 baseRunCounterPendergrass5
Pendergrass with a nice run on the coutner play. Nenon was pulling but didn't really find anyone to block because no one was there. Nice big hole
O2625Shotgun 4-wide4-3 basePassScreenBoldin1
Great pocket protection but good coverage down field makes Skinner hit Boldin as the saftey (CA, 3). Boldin probably should have gone to the sideline instead of back towards the middle of the field. Probably could have picked up a couple more yards that way.
O2534Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassFlyM. Williams25
Great protection once again, and Skinner makes a perfect pass to Williams in the endzone. Exactly how you draw it up (DO, 3).
Drive Notes: Touchdown (Swank) 20-14. 1:35 3rd. Best drive of the day so far, even though it was with a short field. Blocking was better, running was better, and Skinner threw the ball well. Good to finally finish a drive.
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
W20110Shotgun 4-wide4-3 blitzPassPAHarris0
Nenon pulls and makes a nice block (+1). Skinner makes a slightly off target but very catchable pass to Harris off of the play action that would have gone for 15-ish yards, but Harris just doesn't pull it in (CA, 2)
W20210Shotgun 4-wideNickelPassPABoldin12
Nice little shotgun play action where Skinner hits Bodlin on a screen to the right (CA, 3). Boldin gets a bunch of yards down the sideline.
W32110Ace tight4-3 baseRunOff TacklePendergrass10
Everyone blocks down to the left leaving a great hole to the right. Parker makes the key block from the fullback position and Pendergrass runs well (+1). Boldin also helped spring things down field with a good block
W42110Shotgun 4-wide4-3 basePassScreenBrinkman7
Quick pass to the left sideline for a nice pickup. I like this play on first down (CA, 3).
W4923Shotgun 3-wide4-3 basePassQuick outBrinkman5
Another quick ball to Brinkman on the left sideline. This pass wasn't perfect, but it was catchable and Brinkman made a very nice catch (CA, 2)
O47110Shotgun 3-wideNickelRunDrawPendergrass2
Draw up the middle and there wasn't any real hole. Birdsong blocked the defender down into the hole clogging things up (-1).
O4528Ace tightNickelRunCounterPendergrass19 (+15)
Best running play of the season so far. Nenon makes a great seal block on the counter (+1) and Pendergrass makes an excellent cut to get another 10 yards. Perfectly executed, and the late hit gets some extra yards, too.
W13110Ace tight4-3 baseRunCounterPendergrass13
This looks like exactly the same play as the one before, and it worked just as well. Nenon makes another excellent block on the pull (+1) and Pendergrass showed a great burst. I loved seeing Skinner immedietly go to Nenon and give him credit for the play. He knows how important those linemen are.
Drive Notes: Touchdown (Swank), 27-21, 11:30 4Q. Best drive of the day - 80 yards of excellence. Nothing to complain about, and I agree with kicking the extra point.
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
W37110Ace tight4-3 baseRunBlastAdams0
No push at all from the left side of the line on the blast. Nothing terrible, but nothing good.
W37210Shotgun 5-wideDimePassQuick outAdams7
Skinner gets rid of the ball quickly to Adams on an out to the left. Nice play (CA, 3).
W4433Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassScreenWooster3
Rebels bring pressure and Skinner makes a quick bubble pass to Wooster. Not a perfect pass but a good catch (CA, 2). Didn't look like a very good spot to me but it got the first anyway
W47110Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassScreenBrinkman2
Quick screen to Brinkman on the left, but the ball was underthrown and kept Brinkman from being able to get up field (IN, 2).
W4928Shotgun 4-wideNickelPassScreenBoldin4
Another quick screen, this time to Boldin on the Right (CA, 3). He spins a bit for extra yards, decent play.
O4734Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassDeep inBrinkman0
Skinner gets good protection but throw high and a little behind Brinkman. Would have taken a rediculous catch to make, a costly innacurate throw from Skinner (IN, 1).
Drive Notes: Punt, 27-21, 8:00 4Q. This drive probably shouldn't have ended when it did, and it was almost very costly. Had Wake lost, this would be the critical drive we could point to for why. Didn't eat much clock, didn't make the important play when it mattered. Glad we don't have to worry about that.
LnDnDsO FormD FormTypePlayPlayerYards
W20110Shotgun 2-backsDimePassScrambleRinfrette7
Surprising amount of pressure on Skinner here, but he scrambles to the right side and finds Rinfrette who makes a good catch on the way out of bounds (CA, 2).
W2723Shotgun 5-wideDimePassQuick OutM. Williams5
Ole Miss brought a corner blitz but Skinner gets it off quick to Williams on the right sideline. Great catch by Williams on the ball that was slightly high (CA, 2).
W32110Shotgun 4-wideDimePassThrow awayBoldin0
Great protection but great coverage by Ole Miss. Skinner waits as long as possible but ultimately has to throw it away (TA, 0).
W32210Shotgun 2-backsDimePassPostBoldin22
Perfect protection from the line and Skinner finds Boldin wide open over the middle. This was a crucial play and I'm not going to complain, but Skinner actually throws this ball pretty low and I wonder if Boldin could have gotten a few more yards with a better pass (CA, 2).
O46110Shotgun 5-wideDimePassQuick outWooster2
Nenon got beat on a blitz here (-1) and Skinner had to get rid of it in a hurry. He makes a nice pass to Wooster at the right sideline, but Wooster gets tackled before making it out of bounds and comes up limping (CA, 3).
O4428Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassPass InterferenceAdams15
Ole Miss brings a blitz here and with Adams going out for a pass there isn't anyone to pick up the extra guy, so I can't blame anyone for that. Skinner makes an excellent side step to avoid the blitzer and get the deep pass off to Adams. The PI call (a good call for contact early in the route) nets 15 yards.
O29110Shotgun 5-wideDimePassQuick OutWooster5
Another blitz and Skinner gets it off quickly to a wide open Wooster who gets out of bounds with a five yard gain (CA, 3).
O2425Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassDeep outM. Williams0
Rebels still blitzing, Skinner gets off a quick pass to Williams but it's a bit behind him, would have been a great catch though (IN, 1).
O2435Shotgun 5-wideNickelPassThrow awayParker0
Ole Miss blitzes again and there just aren't enough linemen to block them all. Skinner throws it away in Parker's direction which was fine (TA, 0).
Drive Notes: Field Goal (Swank, 41), 30-28, Final. Excellently enginereed drive by Skinner and the Wake offense to go down and make this possible. This drive could be the one we look at later in the year as the one that made sure things stayed on the right track.

To be honest, I was actually surprised by how well the offense performed as a whole. Perhaps the way the Deacs managed to win the game has softened me up a bit, but I really don't feel like anyone was really terrible.

The thing that was most clearly lacking was consistency within drives. It's amazing how quickly a couple of silly mistakes will kill a drive. The reason Wake had so much success in the third and 4th quarters was because they finished their drives and didn't do stupid things to kill them before they could put points on the board.

I though Riley had an excellent game - he thew a very high percentage of catchable passes. Check it out:

QBDOCAINBRTABAPR
Skinner229713-2

Several smart throw aways and a couple of excellent passes (not to mention five touchdowns and zero interceptions through two games) all make me very happy.

The receivers had a good day catching the ball as well. Kevin Harris was the only one to drop a routine catch, and only a couple of "good catches" were dropped. Take a look:

Player0123
Boldin11/11/19/9
Belton---2/2
Adams1-1/11/1
Harris--1/21/2
M. Williams10/21/21/1
Brinkman-0/13/31/1
Wooster-0/12/24/4
Rinfrette--1/1-
Parker1---


Boldin was clearly the primary target, and fulfilled that roll very well. Of course, the one thing that gets lost here is the Pass Interference Josh Adams drew on the final drive. That was probably more valuable than any other catch in the game.

I was very impressed by Russell Nenon's play against the Rebels, partiuclarly in the second half. He was almost single handedly responsible for Brandon Pendergrass's touchdown run (and the run that set up the TD run). No one else had particularly great days, and Birdsong graded out the worst in my analysis.
Player+-T
Birdsong24-2
Nenon41+3
Bailey12-1
McMillin330
Griffin32+1
Looney-1-1
Rinfrette1-+1
Hoag-1-1
Wooster-1-1
Parker2-+2

We'll have to see how this metric works out in the long run, but I think it's a decent start.

So looking at all of this, I really am more encouraged than I am discouraged. There was a lot of improvement in the second half of the game which was particularly exciting to me. Not only did it show a bit more of what this offense is capable of, but it also showed that they aren't going to throw in the towel when things aren't going well.

One thing that I like right now is the platooning of fullbacks. Rinfrette, Belton, and Harris are all getting plenty of snaps, and all of them have been doing good things with their opportunities. If they can all continue to contribute and we can keep them fresh by rolling them in and out all the time then I think that's a great setup.

Hopefully whatever Wooster tweaked on that last drive will be fine by next week (I imagine it will be) and maybe we'll finally get to see Jordan Williams get in the game. The last trip to FSU was certainly a memorable one; I can't wait to see what these guys do this time.

Let me know what you think of this new feature and how you think it could be improved. It's definitely still in development, and if there are things you'd like to see done with it I definitely want to hear your suggestions.


4 comments

  • Anonymous  
    9/12/08, 9:22 AM

    Wow. I don't know what they're feeding you kids these days in your Wheaties, but wow. All right, tell the truth. Did you really go to Wake for an Accounting degree?

    Well done, and nice feature. I'm gonna have to make a special decoding ring and wear it for the next "replay booth". Trying to remember the symbols is hard for us old alums. We haven't had to think in years.

  • Anonymous  
    9/12/08, 11:14 AM

    Zach - I liked the feature. Especially since I did watch the replay of the game often in slo-motion.

    I will say this, Ole Miss blitzed on virutally every down. They brought LBs on virutually every play - sometimes on the snap and sometimes on a delay. Occasionally they blitzed DBs. Wake's counter was the quick pass, which had the same efefct as a run game. Having watched the game in this fashion, I am really impressed with Coach Lobo. He found a way for us to deal with their incessant blitzing. Of course, Riley was also impressive in correctly guessing where the blitzes were coming from.

    I am also encouraged. We found a way to win against a pretty good team that was throwing a lot of stuff at us. It is a testament to our coaching staff and players.

  • Anonymous  
    9/12/08, 12:35 PM

    the effort is appreciated!

  • Unknown  
    9/12/08, 10:31 PM

    wow Zach. this is incredible. it has taken me a couple of visits to due your post justice with reading it all and also thinking about it. I just dont want fsu (or any other team) to get ahold of this info! I'm kind of joking.

    ha! hope you are well. I thought about coming up this weekend but I dont think I can justify visiting 4 times a month! hopefully we can talk soon.

    Kyle

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